Mayor Rahm Emanuel | Source
CHICAGO - There's little question about whether Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will win the February 24, 2015 mayoral election. The question is whether he'll win the 50 percent plus one needed to avoid a run-off election April 7, 2015.
With five candidates on the ballot, whether Emanuel can avoid a runoff depends on turnout, a recent Ogden & Fry poll shows, once again showing "All politics is local."
"Remarkably little has changed for the Mayoral candidates from week to week. Rahm Emanuel maintains his better than 20% lead over Chuy Garcia. All the drama centers around whether Emanuel can get the 50%+1 and avoid a runoff. Turnout will make all the difference," Ogden & Fry reports. "This is going to be difficult to predict because there will be high turnout in Wards with competitive Aldermanic races and little incentive for voters in Wards without competitive or no competition Aldermanic races."
If Emanuel is unable to obtain the 51 percent majority, he'll face the second runner up on April 7th. Right now, it appears former state senator Jesus "Chuy" Garcia would be his run-off opponent. Garcia is backed by the Chicago Teachers Union and state employee unions.
Despite an array of unhappy Chicago voters, It appears Emanuel is less than two points away from avoiding a run-off:
