Syndicated columnist Robert Novak wrote Wednesday that Denny Hastert will be resigning November 6 . . . making the way for the February 5th primary date to become the same day as a special election for the 14th CD.
Novak speculates the shorter campaign would lean the election in favor of the candidates with the most money and if Obama is still as popular in Illinois on February 5th as he is today, the Democrats could have a chance to gain the seat.
Breaking News
Hastert Early Resignation: An Illinois Republican source tells us former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) plans to resign November 6 this year instead of finishing out his term. This would create a vacancy and trigger a special election in the 14th District.
- Under Illinois statute, the governor, Rod Blagojevich (D), would get to pick the date of both of the special general election and the special primary election (with separate ballots for each party). The general election would have to be within 120 days of the vacancy (meaning by early March, if the November 6 resignation date holds). February 5 is the date for Illinois's presidential and congressional primaries, and slating the special election -- either the primaries or the general -- on that date would save state money.
- The effect of the placing either the special primary or the special general on the same day as the presidential primary is impossible to determine at this point. If one party is seeing a more competitive presidential primary by that date, it could benefit from boosted turnout. The presence of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) on the primary ballot could help Democrats.
- In any event, a special election would entail a much briefer campaign, which would favor the more well-funded candidates. That would be businessmen Jim Oberweis (R) and Bill Foster (D).
- On net, Hastert's early resignation, by stirring the pot, gives Democrats a slightly better chance in this Republican district.
