By Mark Rhoads
There is no specific Illinois angle here except that illegal Mexican immigrants living in Illinois were legally eligible to vote in Mexico but most did not make the trip home to do so. There is however, some good news for conservatives in the voting in Mexico on Sunday. Sometimes a close election is just a close election. Because voters are closely divided does not mean someone committed election fraud or that the system is broken. It might mean the system is working. With 98 percent of ballots counted, as of early on July 4, 2006, the official count of ballots for the next president of Mexico showed a vote total for the relatively conservative economist Felipe Calderon (pictured at right) of PAN (National Action Party--the same party as Vincente Fox) that was 380,000 more votes than the total for the left-wing candidate Lopez Obrador, candidate of the PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution). The PRI (Instituional Revolutionary Party) finished a distant third but retained seats in Congress. The margin for Calderon over Obrado is about one percent with 800,000 ballots not yet counted. But since those ballots are in states of Mexico where PAN candidates are doing well for the legislative branch and PAN will have the plurality in the Congress, it seems highly unlikely that the Calderon margin can be erased.
Now as you might expect, there is a lot of silly talk both in Mexico and in the US in left-wing circles and blogs that this is Florida 2000 all over again. Please. In Florida, the margin between Bush and Gore was about 500 votes out of five million in that state that decided the Electoral College. There is no Electoral College in Mexico, only a raw national head count. A margin of one percent, if it holds up for Calderon, is small but statistically decisive and absolutely nothing like Florida in 2000. The Mexican stock market was up more than four percent on Monday because, analysts said, investors were hopeful over the expectation that Calderon would win.
To his shame, Mr. Lopez Obrador tried a preemptive strike on TV Sunday night by ignoring the plea from the official election authorities to remain silent and declaring he had won by a half million votes based on his private data which of course he would not share with news media. Also to his shame, he refused to rule out street demonstrations and civil unrest if he lost. To his slightly redeeming credit however, he seemed to be more reasonable in statements on Monday, saying that he would accept defeat but only if he thought the official count was fair and impartial. The last thing Mexico needs is weeks of legal wrangling and recounts reminiscent of the Florida battle in 2000. Unlike the U.S., there is a greater liklihood that mass street demonstrations in Mexico City could lead to violence.
In the context of Mexican politics, a win for Sr. Felipe Calderon and PAN is a win for a continuation of free-market reforms that Mexico badly needs. The last six years under Vincente Fox have been no picnic for the poor of Mexico who have never had an easy time any more than the poor in any country. But to reverse course now and abandon free-market economics would only result in a bleaker prospect for new jobs and Sr. Lopez Obrador only offered more of the same tired Leftist programs that have been tried in many countries before with no success. Fortunatetly for Felipe Calderon and the future of Mexico, while some Left Wing activists will cry fraud at the top of their lungs, it should be nothing but noise. Most people in Mexico do respect their independent election administration and its reputation for fair counts in 2000 and in local and state elections. After all, in 2000 Vincente Fox was the first independent candidate to defeat the PRI which had ruled Mexico without a break since 1929. It may take another several days for the majority of Mexicans to accept the results. But if the results are fair and accurate, they will stand on their own merits and all of Mexico will win.