WHEATON - If Nancy Pelosi has any chance of returning to be Speaker of the US House - demanding Democrats win the majority again - there are four districts in Illinois that pollsters are closely watching: IL 06, IL 12, IL 13 and IL 14.
If Democrats win in all four of these, there will be only three Republicans left in the IL Congressional Caucus: John Shimkus in CD 15, Adam Kinzinger in CD 16 and Darin LaHood in CD 18.
Democrats are exuberant, thinking the Kavanaugh confirmation has sufficiently energized their radical Left base to win back four Illinois seats - bringing them closer to the 22 seats they need for Pelosi to become Speaker again.
“Democratic candidates across Illinois are riding a surge of enthusiasm and holding their opponents accountable for voting to gut health care protections and giving a tax handout to the wealthy and big corporations. Each of these candidates have successfully introduced themselves to voters with messages that are resonating across their districts. Thanks to their hard work, these races are moving towards Democrats just a month from Election Day,” said DCCC spokesperson Sean Savett.
Here's what Democrats are saying about IL-06:
A new poll released yesterday by the Casten campaign shows Democrat Sean Casten extending his lead over Rep. Peter Roskam to 49% to 44%, up from a three point lead in early September. President Trump and Roskam himself remain deeply unpopular in the district — 6th district voters overwhelmingly dislike Trump by 56% negative to 35% positive margin and more feel negatively about Roskam (40%) than positively (30%) — and the millions of dollars in negative ads attacking Casten have failed to stick. Casten also has a significant advantage in voter enthusiasm and commitment: among voters who say they are certain to vote, Casten holds a full 13-point advantage over Roskam (54% to 41%).
Roskam's campaign says the congressman is working hard to keep his seat - boasting Chicago Tribune and Daily Herald endorsements.
"No question the race is close. Peter Roskam continues to work hard every day to advance solutions, bringing home $1 billion in tax relief to the Sixth District and sponsoring bipartisan legislation that would hold the IRS accountable for their misuse of civil asset forfeiture.
"That's why he's earned the endorsements of the Chicago Tribune and the Daily Herald, with both papers highlighting his bipartisanship and proven track record of getting things done. Sean Casten can continue to share his enthusiasm for raising taxes on everything and everyone; despite what his own firm tells him, voters in this district aren't going for Casten's plan to make them pay a lot more."
More from Democrats on the other tight races in Illinois:
A poll released last week by the DCCC found Brendan Kelly is surging in a dead heat with Rep. Mike Bost, trailing just 42% to 41%. This is the second poll in a row to show Kelly surging and a 1 point race. The DCCC poll found lifelong politician Mike Bost is underwater in the St. Louis media market — which makes up two-thirds of the district —despite Bost’s campaign and the Congressional Leadership Fund spending heavily on broadcast and cable here. In the St. Louis market, 37% of voters have an unfavorable view of Bost (35% favorable), 39% disapprove of how he is handling his job as congressman (34% approve), and he trails Kelly by 5 points, 44-39. Kelly also leads among women, voters under 50 and college graduates.
A new poll released yesterday by the Londrigan campaign shows Betsy Londrigan closing the gap and just one point behind Rep. Rodney Davis, 49% to 48%, despite trailing Davis 51-46 in another poll conducted in mid-September. Londrigan is also benefitting from a significant enthusiasm gap: among voters most likely to vote, Londrigan leads 51-47%. The poll also found that the more voters learn about each candidate, the more likely they are to support Londrigan: Londrigan’s rise in polling numbers directly corresponds with increases in her name identification and decreases in Congressman Davis’ approval rating.
A poll conducted by the New York Times/ Sienna and completed yesterday shows Lauren Underwood trailing Rep. Randy Hultgren by just 4 points, 47% to 43%. President Trump’s job approval is 3 points underwater, and voters prefer a representative who will be a check on the president by 8 points.