The polls are finally getting honest, and it's neck-and-neck.
The pollsters have had a heck of a time with this election, since astronomical candidate negatives and an electorate full of regular voters who intend to vote third party, skip the race, or even skip voting entirely, throws a monkey wrench into their models. Polls are scientific, but they’re based on certain standard baselines; this election messes with those baselines, which messes with their science.
You can only extrapolate a result over a nation of 330 million from a sample of one thousand if you know what each demographic always does. This year, we don’t know what they’ll all do, so the pollsters can’t tell what to make of it. Many pollsters skew on purpose; this season, even the ones who are trying to be honest don’t really know what to do with the numbers.
As a result, in this election, there is no longer any such thing as a red state or blue state.
Red States and Blue States No Longer
Truly, as odd as that sounds, red states and blue states are just reflective of past performance. This 2016 election – especially the presidential line, but its effects flow downballot to every race and referendum – is anything but similar to past performance.
Even a blue state can go Republican… if enough of the regular Democrats stay home, if enough regular Democrats skip a race, or if enough regular Democrats vote for the opposition party or a third party.
And even a red state can go Democrat… if enough regular Republicans stay home, if enough regular Republicans skip a race, or if enough regular Republicans vote for the opposition party or a third party.
Yes, that means that even a reliably Republican state like Texas, Utah, or Oklahoma can go for Hillary Clinton… if only enough overconfident people think "I don't have to show up today" or "the GOP doesn't need my vote, I'll make a point by voting for Hillary, or for Johnson, or for McMullin." All it takes is a couple percent of people to have that self-centered attitude, and the state goes for Hillary Clinton.
There aren’t enough people who’ll support these third party candidates to elect any of them. For good or ill, the ship has sailed on the possibility of a Castle, Johnson, or McMullin presidency. If there were ever a chance at that, one of them would have caught on in the summer.
Only Clinton or Trump can win this. That’s unfortunate, but it is a fact.
So the only reason to vote for anyone else, good or bad, is to make a personal statement… instead of making a legitimate choice. It’s the coward’s way out. It’s ducking the question.
When it comes down to it, a vote isn't about you. It's about the country.
We need every vote for the Republican Party, not because the Republican Party is perfect - it's not - but because the Democratic Party is PROVEN to be so horribly corrupt, we simply cannot risk letting their politicians be in charge again!
A Moment of History
Let’s go back in time, just a few years… to the first two years of the Obama administration. Remember what damage the Democrats did when they controlled all three - the house, senate and presidency - in 2009-2010? Remember that?
In just two years, without even controlling the Supreme Court, the Democrats were able to enact Obamacare, the massive 2009 “stimulus,” the war on coal and oil, the automaker takeover that put thousands of distributors and auto parts vendors out of business...
Now imagine not just two years of that, but a generation of it.
Because if Hillary Clinton wins the White House, she'll stock the court with more Ginsburgs nd Breyers and Kagans and Sotomayors… and she’ll naturalize 30 million illegals so that the Democrats are guaranteed to win every election for decades to come. She’ll make Election Day a Democrats-only day, by so stocking the ballot boxes with fresh immigrants, welfare cheats, bureaucrats, extremists, and felons who don’t share American values in the least.
And in addition… this is unpleasant to mention, but we must… you know her health won’t allow her to survive a two-term presidency. She’ll most likely resign for health reasons or die in office, leaving the White House in Tim Kaine’s hands.
Remember how easily Lyndon Johnson coasted to reelection in 1964 when JFK died in office? So would Kaine. He’d be in for at least another four years. In fact, if she makes it past January 21, 2019, he could legally serve for ten years on his own. And he would.
Imagine: “The man who inherited the policies and goals of the first woman president.” He’d be politically unstoppable, just as LBJ was, despite his Great Society waste and destruction.
They can do it – and they will – if we let them win tomorrow.
Forgive me, but it’s time for an analogy: America is on the edge of a cliff.
If you're falling off a cliff, you don't get picky about which tree stump, vine, or rope is available to grab onto. You don't keep falling, waiting for a perfect rappelling cable with all the right mountaineering attachments for proper mountain climbing gear.
You grab whatever is available.
The election of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine to the highest offices in the land would be the same as crashing to the rocks on the bottom of that cliff.
The Trump/Pence ticket may not be that perfect rappelling cable, but if it's the stump or rope that breaks your fall, and enables you to live another day, then... grab onto it and don't be picky!
Vote Trump/Pence !!!
Copyright 2016 John F. Di Leo
John F. Di Leo is a Chicagoland-based international trade trainer, actor, and writer. His columns are found regularly in Illinois Review.
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