Last month, Illinois Review ran a story entitled: 2010 Redux: Polls Show Undecided GOP Voters Could Determine 2014 Gov Nominee.
The Illinois Manufacturer's Association's polling company - We Ask America - followed up on this particular idea writing yesterday: "...a number of people have contacted us about whether our latest poll for the Illinois GOP governor’s race is “projectable” (meaning, can those results mathematically be manipulated to project the final outcome). ...Maybe."
We Ask America provided the following chart from the 2010 GOP tracking polls (click to enlarge).
As WAA noted, the 2010 Primary Election was held on February 2. Kirk Dillard led the field going into the final week before the Primary. But Andy McKenna had been running negative ads against Dillard and Ryan for weeks. As a result, both Dillard and Ryan dipped in the polls.
At the same time, Bill Brady was largely ignored. His downstate ads spoke directly to the Republican base, and circumstances put him in an ideal position win in a photo finish in the end.
The question in 2014 is can the same kind of thing happen. The answer seems to be yes. But as with all elections, each one is unique with different candidates and variables.
Rauner is leading in all the polls, but continues to pour money into his campaign, which seems to indicate his internals are not as positive as the public numbers. Dillard seems to be trending and is likely hoping to get enough cross-over union votes to get him over the top. Accomplishing that would be historic. But this is Illinois politics. Anything is possible.