CHICAGO - According to two polls - We Ask America and the McLaughlin Associates - Chicago businessman Bruce Rauner leads the field of GOP gubernatorial hopefuls.
When it comes to second place, however, State Sen. Bill Brady released an internal poll showing him in the as #2, while State. Sen. Dillard points to the We Ask America poll showing him in the second seat.
Neither Dillard nor Brady are statistically "second," We Ask America's Greg Baise told Illinois Review Wednesday. "The real second place is the 'undecideds.'"
"Now, Bill Brady’s minions have been sidling up to reporters and others promising poll results that prove Brady is everyone’s second choice. If you fail to see the logic of bragging about being the Chosen One…er…Two, then join the club. There’s no Silver Medal in politics," We Ask America noted.
Indeed, it's those undecided GOP voters - 33 percent of GOP women and 20 percent of GOP men - who could be the ones determining which GOP candidate faces Democrat incumbent Governor Pat Quinn next November.
Having considerable "undecideds" three weeks out in a GOP primary isn't really that unusual. As Illinois Review reported (HERE) on January 17, 2010 (three weeks from the Feb 2 primary) a similarly-sized undecided voting bloc - 32 percent - held the fate of a seven-way gubernatorial primary in their hands.
The numbers were based on a Dillard campaign poll of 2,153 likely Republican primary voters, which had Dillard at 22.4 percent, Chicago businessman Andy McKenna had 13.5 percent, former Attorney General Jim Ryan at 10.3 percent, state Sen. Bill Brady at 8.3 percent, Dan Proft at about 6 percent, Adam Andrzejewski at 5.6 percent and former DuPage County Board chairman Bob Schillerstrom at 2.1 percent. Nearly 32 percent of those Republicans polled were undecided.
Another, smaller poll done by then-House Minority Leader Tom Cross (HERE), showed dramatically different numbers. Cross, who had endorsed Andy McKenna, put McKenna at 23 percent, Ryan at 14 percent, Dillard at 10 percent, Proft at 7 percent, Andrzejewski at 6 percent, Brady at 4 percent and Schillerstrom at 2 percent. According to that poll, 38 percent were still undecided.
Three weeks later the undecided voters broke for Bill Brady, who won the 2010 GOP primary by 193 votes over Dillard.
Primary election night 2014 could be just as surprising.