Huffington Post pollster is huffing away - Posted at 9:16 am Tuesday morning
Later on tonight, Mitt Romney will string together a winning coalition with victories in states ranging from Virginia to Colorado, capturing the popular vote by nearly two points and a sizeable majority of electoral votes, making him the 45th President of the United States.
We make this projection with full knowledge that a shift of one or two points in any of six key battleground states could hand Obama the election. But there comes a time when you have to make a judgment and that time is upon us.
On the one hand, we are well aware that the majority of swing state polling is giving an edge to President Obama. Conversely, state and national polling data show Governor Romney winning political independents by large numbers. Never before have we faced so much contradictory data. More than ever we are making this projection based on gut instincts wrapped around science. In the end, we are making our projection based on the belief that most polls are over-sampling Democrats. For example, the final Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll had 35 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans. If by the end of today Democrats are +6 then the President will win reelection. But we think the ratio of GOP and Democratic voters will be closer to even; Democratic turnout will certainly fall well below 2008 levels.