By Pete Speer -
I do not like what I am seeing.
The U.S. Commander at CENTCOM is the Theater commander in the Middle East. He has requested and is getting an additional Carrier Battle Group (CBG) in the Arabian Sea south of Iran. The John C. Stennis and company, after having its port stay shortened is proceeding there. It will ostensibly elieve one of the CBG now there. During the turnover period there will be three CBG there. We have in addition built up our mine hunting and ASW forces in the region.
At home the President has signed a series of Executive Orders giving him specific authority during wartime or a self designated emergency.
All of this will take place this summer. It is not unreasonable to forecast an October surprise. either a state of emergency or a "wartime" role for CINCUS designed to bring the Jewish vote back into the Democrat fold. There has been significant leakage of this group to the Republican Party.
There is a great deal of power in the two or three battle groups, even though the USAF must do the refueling. USAF will be tasked in any action as well.
It seems to me that a coordinated Israeli-US action is in final planning. The israelis will go after the nuclear facilities. The role of the United States will involve destruction of all threats to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz including Iranian Navy and IRGC Navy units, missiles and guns on land in the area west and north of Bandar Abbas, mine hunting, and even Iranian Air Force and missile units which would oppose the Israeli air strikes -- all in the mission of keeping the SLOC open all the way to Basra at the top of the Persian Gulf..
This is dangerous business. In my view, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has control of the military and the secular security apparatus in Iran. It controls Iranian terrorist agents. They are the power behind the nominal boss, Ayatollah Khamenei.
We have seen significant repair of the Sunni-Shi'a (fourteen) centuries old split as senior IRGC officials make deals with leaders in Sunni countries. This needs to be watched. I would much rather keep the split and the hatred open and festering than see the whole Muslim religion act as one.
The Sunni Salafists, with al Qaeda as their military and terrorist arm are one threat. If we compound them with the IRGC apostles of terror in Iram, we have -- IMHO -- we will have squared the security problem in the United States. The president, in the name of National Security might implement the powers contained in the Executive orders, bypassing Congress.