Public Policy Polling's first numbers on the Illinois gubernatorial race show Republican State Senator Bill Brady a whopping 10 points ahead of unelected Governor Pat Quinn in a 43 to 33 percent race. 53 percent of Illinois' voters think negatively of Quinn while less that 25 percent think positively of him.
Still, Brady's not had enough money to introduce himself to the Illinois public, and as long as the stubborn, tight-fisted money guys in the IL GOP continue to hold support from Brady, they'll be where to place blame if Quinn's campaign hits the air waves first and muddies up Brady's positive, refreshing, down-home image. What Brady needs is for the state's energized grassroots to sweep him up, making it impossible for the party's money guys to ignore a Brady momentum building. Brady's got a chance to pull this race off in 2010, but the grassroots and the check writers need to get on board now rather than later.
Public Policy warns ...
Brady remains an unknown to most voters in the state. 55% have no opinion of him while 25% see him favorably and 20% negatively. Quinn's best hope is to absolutely destroy Brady's image with that majority of voters who are ambivalent toward him right now. But when an incumbent's disapproval is over 50% it's pretty hard for the election to end up being anything other than a referendum on himself. The GOP is favored to win this race.
See that? The GOP is favored to win this race.