Why Obama Looks Like a One Termer

by James Pethokoukis, US News & World Report

Just "one and done" for Barack Obama's presidency? Recall an ominous passage in his otherwise joyous election-night speech: "The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even in one term." Maybe the tone was suggested by one of Obama's economic advisers like Jason Furman or Austan Goolsbee. It's the battered economy, after all, that will be President Obama's greatest domestic policy challenge.  As such, it will also be his greatest political challenge, too -- but one where failure may already be baked into the cake.

That's right, the "O" in "Obama" may stand for "One Term." For starters, there's a strong chance that when voters head to the polls on Nov. 2, 2010, they likely will still think the economy is awful. Not much debate about that. (Good chance the Democrats' two-election winning streak comes to an end.) And while voters may be somewhat patient for two years, patient for four years? Really unlikely. If history is any guide at all, voters may still be terribly cranky about the economy when they cast their ballots on Nov. 6, 2012 and thus likely choose the 45th president of the United States -- be it Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal or some other Republican without "Bush" for a last name. Once again a "change" election for an impatient America. The same bad economy that doomed John McCain in 2008 will have sunk Obama, as well.

Here's the political and economic math: Let's assume the current downturn turns out to be as painful as the 1990-91 recession. It's an apt comparison. As Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Gary Stern said earlier this year," The situation we confront today is reminiscent, in several salient ways, of the headwinds environment that prevailed in the aftermath of the 1990-91 recession."

Among those "headwinds" Stern referred to: an imploding real estate bubble, a construction bust, a banking crisis, and a credit crunch. Sound familiar? The nation's gross domestic product fell 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990 and 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 1991. But even after the economy started expanding again, the unemployment rate kept rising until it hit 7.8 percent in June of 1992 vs. a low of 5.2 percent in June 1990. Recall that in January of 1992, President Bush, running for reelection, told New Hampshire voters that the economy was in "free fall" even though the economy was later shown to have grown at a robust 4.2 percent during the first quarter of that year.

See, it takes a while for people to really perceive that an economy has turned around, especially if unemployment is high. Bill Clinton won the 1992 election on the economy ("it's the economy, stupid") even though GDP had been growing for six full quarters. According to Gallup, 88 percent of Americans thought the economy was "fair" or "poor" in October 1992 with some 60 percent saying the economy was "getting worse." Two years later, it was the Democrats turn to feel the brunt of widespread economic anxiety as the Republicans captured both the House and the Senate. Even though the economy had then been growing for 14 straight quarters and the unemployment rate was down to 5.8 percent, 72 percent of Americans still thought the economy was "fair" or "poor" and 66 percent though the nation was headed in the wrong direction.

That's right 3 1/2 years after the 1990-91 recession ended, the economy was still weighing negatively on voters and hurting the incumbent political party. Is it so hard to imagine, then, that three or four years from now voters will also be unhappy about the state of the economy and blame the party in power, the Obamacrats?

And then there's this: The 2008-09 recession may actually be far nastier than its 1990-91 twin. Every day, Wall Street forecasts worsen. Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, expects a jobless rate of 8 1/2 percent by the end of 2009 and drifting a bit higher in 2010 for the biggest cumulative rise in unemployment since the Great Depression. And over at JP Morgan Chase, economists are predicting the economy will shrink 4.0 percent this quarter and 2.0 percent during the first three months of 2009. And on top of all that, you have the $7 trillion of lost national net worth. (Think higher investment and business taxes will help?)

No wonder Obama's political advisers just told the New York Times that they're already fretting about the 2010 midterms. They may also want to worry about 2012. Team Obama shouldn't expect this election euphoria to last four years if the economy struggles and struggles. (Wait until oil prices and interest rates start rising again.)

Comments

[Phil Collins]

In 1992 and '93, I heard many Republicans say that Bill Clinton would be a one-termer, because he proposed the largest tax increase in the history of our planet and because he wanted to allow gays to serve openly, in the military. However, he won a second term.

Our next campaign goal should be electing more Republicans, in 2010. That will be a better year, for Republicans, than 1994, since Obama is more liberal than Clinton.

[Ken T]

You scoff at Obama and his "Straight Talk" to the nation on election night but he is being honest and informative, something the present Republican administration has failed miserably at. That he would state the dire situation that the country is in bolsters his effectiveness as a leader and not a party politician. He talked to the people about the needs of the people.

You may want to denigrate him but,as Chris Matthews noted, we should at least wish that he does well. He IS going to be our president. To wish him ill is not only unpatriotic but it borders on treason. Is that what the Republican party stands for, treasonous rhetoric fanning flames of dissent and revolution? It saddens me to see such citizens so blatantly anti-American that they wish failure upon our elected leaders. Those who harbor such feelings should be ashamed.

[rightwinger]

He is winning again in 2012. Get prepared.

[Donna]

Obama has not given straight talk. When he says he will not raise taxes on 95% of Americans, that is not the truth. When he allows (or hastens) the demise of the Bush tax cuts, more than 5% will see their taxes increase. When he removes the salary cap of FICA withholding, more than 5% will see their pay shrink further. How you can call that straight talk, I don't know.

I don't wish that any American president fails. But I believe sincerely that as Obama implements his plans, he will make our country weaker militarily, economically, and morally. This doesn't make me un-American; it marks me as a critical thinker. What is truly shameful is the number of voters that 'bought the package' without bothering to look inside.

"To wish him ill is not only unpatriotic but it borders on treason. Is that what the Republican party stands for, treasonous rhetoric fanning flames of dissent and revolution? It saddens me to see such citizens so blatantly anti-American that they wish failure upon our elected leaders. Those who harbor such feelings should be ashamed."

Oh my Gosh!!! I'm laughing so hard I can hardly contain myself! This is a joke. Right?

[Clint Block]

Incumbent presidents almost alwats get re-elected. If you think about the presidency in terms of party control,rather than individual incumbents, in the last 100 years the voters have, with only one exception, given the "presidential" party at least 8 years in office, and, if things are going good in America, a party might get 3 terms in the Whitehouse. Since the election of McKinley,only during WWII did a party get more than 3 terms, and only in 1980 did the voters cut off a party with less than 2.I'd bet that, barring some unusual happenings that the Democrats will control the Whitehouse for 2 terms.

[Jan]

See if everyone had just listened to me (!, lol) and people hadn't taken Mitt's religion as such an issue.

We'd have a blessed Real-live Miracle Worker in Office right now. tsk, tsk..Between the man's personal fortune and what he did with our Olympics..

And maybe in 2010 the repub's will maybe, (Finally) return to the Trueest principles of "True Conservatism"...not a popularity contest for giving money away..like Pelosi and her monkeys..(Barney Frank being The Biggest Joke)...

Why was it ok and perfectly alright to be religiously prejuidicial just as long it wasn't ethnically?

If we hadn't been that way as a country, I'd be sleeping a Whole Lot Better lately...And not drinking so much Maalox....dreading January and Barry truly "unleashed".

given his many faux paux already...yiyiyi

Seriously, would any of you Dare to show up at a party let alone the White House of all things Early!!!

(Wishfully only 4 years, but I think those will be the longest 4 years ever)..

I suggest stock in Exedrine or Tylenol...