Election 08 - National Polls vs. Electoral Maps - Same Trends for Obama - BAD!!!

by Matt Gauntt

A couple days ago, I made a post about the national polls trending for the McCain-Palin ticket after McCain put Palin on the ticket. A commenter tried to dismiss my post by saying that the national polls are meaningless and that the State polls and the electoral college are more important.

Fair enough - I agree with that.  So, let's look at State polls versus the national polls and see what has happened. It is also important to see what I wrote in response about the polls. Because more attention is paid to national polls versus state polls, and frankly there are a lot of states, the data on state polls tend to lag behind the national polls. Thus, the electoral maps tend to change slowly.

All of the analysis below will come from Real Clear Politics (RCP).  Instead of putting up links to each state, I'll reference the overall map here.  Just click on individual states to see their detailed numbers.

As of today (9/9/2008), there are 10 "toss-up states (these are defined when the RCP average is less than a 5% difference), there are 6 states leaning Obama (defined as being ahead by 5-10%) and 4 that are leaning McCain.  Let briefly look at each one. 

Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida:  Mostly even for the last month (1-3% difference).

New Mexico, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Georgia, Oregon, Iowa:  No polling since the conventions.  (note Minnesota & Iowa both had one small poll of registered voters that was taken between 8/31 and 9/2).

Ohio:  Was "Leaning Obama" a little over a month ago, now McCain-Palin are up about 1%.  This average includes individual polls that are over a month old.  The most recent Rasmussen Poll of likely voters shows McCain-Palin up 7%.

Michigan: About a month and a half ago, Michigan was "leaning Obama", now it is a toss-up.  The individual polls over the last 2 months have shown a steady decline for Obama.  The latest RCP Average is only a 2.8% lead for Obama, whereas back on late July, there was a 7.7% lead for Obama on the RCP Average.

Pennsylvania:  A month ago, this state was "leaning Obama", now it is a toss-up.  The latest Rasmussen poll of Likely voters only shows Obama up by 2%.

Wisconsin:  A little over a month ago, Wisconsin was a "Solid Obama" (up by more than 10%).  Now it is listed as "leaning Obama", but the RCP average is only shows a 5.3% for Obama.  The only poll done since the conventions only shows Obama up by 3%.

North Carolina:  Has been trending a little more towards McCain, but the only poll after the convention shows a huge positive swing for McCain-Palin - 20% up.  However, this is still listed as "leaning McCain"

Montana:  Only one poll since the conventions.  For the most part, only Rasmussen has done polling here.  The July 1 poll showed Obama up by 5% while the September 8th Rasmussen poll shows McCain-Palin up by 11%.  However, Montana is still listed as "leaning McCain"

New Jersey: Only one poll since the conventions by "Fairleigh Dickinson".  The same poll in mid June showed Obama up by 16% whereas now that poll shows Obama up by only 6%.

Washington:  Only one poll, Survey USA, has been conducted since the conventions.  The Survey USA poll in mid July has Obama up by 16%, 7% in mid August, and now only 4% for the 9/5-9/7 poll.  this state is still listed as "leaning Obama"

Right now, the "solid and leaning" Obama states total 217 electoral votes.  The "solid and leaning" McCain states total 189 electoral votes with 132 electoral votes are considered toss ups.

Based on the trends and the analysis above, I would be VERY worried if I was the Obama Campaign Manager.

Also, based on the above analysis, I stand by my statement that adding a solid conservative of Sarah Palin to the ticket has energized the base and brought vigor to the campaign.  A month ago, most pundits were writing off McCain.  I don't think a serious analysis would conclude the same thing today.