Chickens coming home to roost for the Democrats

by George Dienhart

I imagine things may be a little tense in the Obama campaign headquarters right about now. He is now tantalizingly close to a nomination that is his to lose. Problem is, he just may lose it yet. The delegate count stands at Obama 1714, Clinton 1589. First one to 2025 wins. There are about 727 delegates still up for grab- enough to put either over the top, or neither. There are 380 delegates yet to be chosen via the primary process. The remaining 347 are super delegates who are not bound to any vote. Here is a little breakdown of what I see happening:

I allocated the remaining delegates by analyzing existing trends in polling, the states election history and where I think the momentum will be. I also took into account fundraising, though I did not weigh it as heavily as I would have in the past. I chose to de-emphasize funding (to a degree) due to the McCain and Clinton comebacks.

As you can see, this is a nightmare scenario for the Democrats- no clear winner has emerged after the last primary. The Super Delegates- will choose the Democratic standard-bearer and that is super bad news for Democrats. If they vote for Clinton, they set their party back 20 years and McCain wins. If they vote for Obama, they vote against the last 16 years of Clinton rule, and McCain wins. As you can see, believe the damage is already done.

A Clinton candidacy delivers more of the same Clinton act- and it is an act that has left the voters both cold and tired. This is a scenario that consists of more Bill shenanigans, more Hillary temper-tantrums, and more losses in a war on terror that will be fought by the police, not our military. The public wants no part of this. While the general public has had enough, Clinton does have enough hangers on to continue to fund her in a guerilla campaign that cut Obama top the bone.

Nominating Obama means hearing more of Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers. More damnation and terrorism. More Freudian slips over what the liberal elitist Obama really thinks about the majority of the country. In short, an Obama Nomination sets back the Democratic Party for the same 10 years. On the funding front, Obama has enough cash to wield a club that will hammer away at Clinton- bringing up numerous scandals and flips.

No matter which Democrat is elected, Republicans win. The 10 years that this will cost the Democrats will cost them dearly- three presidential elections, and nominations for most of the non-newly appointed Supreme Court seats. We have heard of previous “conservative revolutions”- this one will make the others pale by comparison. We will not win back congress this time, but we will in the next two cycles. Either Democratic candidate will disaffect a huge swath of their base.

While as a Republican, I feel this is good for the country, it would have been hard to imagine only a few months ago. Obama was doing well- and Hillary was the Democratic Party’s past. Four months ago- a Hillary nomination was going a foregone conclusion. Even though this election will most likely result in another white, male president, it has been historic. Historically, no political party has ever damaged itself so badly, in what should have been an easy election. With the left-wing manufactured recession and an unpopular president, conventional wisdom tells us we should have a Democrat elected this cycle. History books will tell us otherwise- leaving Democrats to cling bitterly to memories of what might have been.

Cross-posted in Raw Meat for a Red State

Comments

[Pat Hickey Chicago, IL]

PorkChop, PorkChop
Greasy, Greasy,
McCain beats your Team -
Easy, Easy!

[Pat Hickey Chicago, IL]

How about that Dick Morris? Notice there was no comma. He is giving Advice to John McCain- 'Thanks, now Bounce, Cupcake!'

[Pete Speer]

This election will swing not on personality but on fear.

It is to that sense of fear among the citizens that Senator Obama is appealing with hois cover call for change, change which he says only he and his fellow Democrats can manage. They will be running against the recession and the war and the terrorist threat all of which, they will say, have been brought on us by the Bush Administration.

It will be fought with anti-personal mines, with covert appeals to the base using scurrilous tactics and to the impressionable by reference to personal flaws.

It has already started.

The MSM has taken up the disability pension and the temper of Senator McCain -- the former awarded by a Board of Senior Naval Officers, the latter concentrating on events five years ago and more.

The Huffington Post, well funded by Mr. Soros is being used to attribute statements to McCain that he never made.

Democrat operatives are already entering Blogs with the sole intent of keeping Conservatives away from the polls. the calculation presently is that the huge new registrations will favor the Democrat and that in the end will make the difference.

It is going to get bloody, folks and in the end, the loser will be the Republic.

[rockdalian]

To quote Thomas Sowell, this pretty much sums up my feelings, "Senator John McCain could never convince me to vote for him. Only Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama can cause me to vote for McCain."

[TheReallyRightGuy]

Dienhart -- congratulations on an amazing piece of fiction, but I can top you with this: the American people become so disgusted with both major parties that they elect either Nader or Barr, setting both current parties back at least a century.

George, why are you so sure that McCain will win? Conservatives like myself may vote for Keyes in the Constitution Party over the single issue of Illegal Immigration. Many conservatives haven't figured out what they will do yet and they may stay home on election day. In any event, McCain will loose a lot of conservative votes for his RINO views.

In my opinion, people in the banking industry who only speak English are being replaced with bi-lingual and day laborers are replacing american citizens for often times 1/3 the wage. Who is President Bush kidding that these are jobs that americans won't do! Stand up and protect our jobs before we don't have a country or a constitution left to protect.

I can take a walk around any neighborhood in the city of Chicago and the language spoken is Spanish. There are Mexican flags that are being flown above American flags, which is clearly a violation of US law. I feel like a foreigner in my own land.

An illegal can get arrested in Chicago, anywhere in Cook County or the state of Illinois, without fear of deportation.

[louis G Atsaves]

If conservatives stay home on election day make sure you open your check books and buy a new pen. You'll need them to write out all those new tax increases that will be called "tax reform."

Then stay home and watch as social issues near and dear to the two arch-liberals still slugging it out in the Democratic Primary are pushed through a Congress controlled by Democrats.

Then get on your home computer and bitch and moan about those turn of events.

If what is happening in Springfield, Illinois isn't enough to convince you that staying home is a God awful plan, then nothing will convince you.

Staying at home instead of voting for McCain sounds like one heck of a stupid plan. If you do elect to stay at home, then you have no right to bitch and moan over the results of your (non)action later on.

[George Dienhart]

I have to agree about the 3rd party votes. A vote for Keyes is a vote for Obama. There are fewer Republicans than there are Democrats, to vote for someone that has absolutly no chance of winning is throwing your vote away...

[Truthful James]

McCain is taking the first few steps towards becoming a winner, and Rush Dim Bulb does not like it at all.

In fact many of the Conservative wing are up in arms over McCain's criticism of the North Carolina Republican party for its anti-Obama/Wright ad.

Rush et al seems to want McCain to play by the unlimited warfare, take no prisoners rules, which have governed recent elections.

I infer that what McCain is trying to do is taking away the Change-Fear-anti-Bush rhetoric in favor of the more considerate campaigning that was done by Ronald Reagan.

If he is successul he will recreate the Reagan Democrat sector, increase turnout by voters tired of the inceeaant personal attacks. I infer that he is looking at the expected block voting by Blacks and trying to strip off the middle class blacks with a positive message of inclusion and opportunity.

He will appeal to a much broader range of voters and do it without running a Change-Fear type campaign. If he can stay the course, the many reasons why people would vote for Obama become less compelling.

[TheReallyRightGuy]

Dienhart -- Do you really think we can win another election thru fear mongering? Maybe after the lies and misrepresentations about WMD people won't fall for this stuff any more.

[George Dienhart]

RRG_

It's not fear mongering. It's a scary world. North Korea was trying to give Syria a Nuke plant, purportedly to develop Nuclear Weapons. Iran is pursuing Nuclear Weapons. As far as Nukes in Iraq, even Saddam thought he had a weapons program, and God only knows what was transfered to Syria. It's not fear-mongering- it's a reality check.