Oberweis Defeat a Victory for Change?

by Dan Proft

Democrat Bill Foster’s victory over Republican Jim Oberweis in Saturday’s special election in Illinois is evidence of the clamor for change in the countryside?  Perhaps.

Are exurban Chicagoans disenfranchised with Washington?  Yes, they are.

But there were some uniquely local factors that were more decisive. 

This was Oberweis’ fourth run for high office since 2002.  Over the past six years, he has turned in more stale, lackluster, straight-to-video performances than Matthew McConaughey.

The dairy magnate’s gaffe-filled campaigns have demonstrated one thing clearly: he has exponentially more personal wealth than good sense.

He burst onto the scene in 2002 running for the U.S. Senate by comparing pro-lifers to the Taliban.  Oberweis was endorsed by then House Speaker Dennis Hastert in that campaign, as he was in the congressional race just concluded.  He lost the primary.

In 2004, he ran for U.S. Senate again and egregiously overplayed the anti-illegal immigration sentiment, even among GOP primary voters, with a now infamous ad that would have made 18th century Know Nothings blush.  He was also fined by the FEC coming out of that cycle for a thinly veiled attempt to run television ads paid for by his dairy to benefit his campaign.  He lost the primary.

In 2006, he ran for Governor and was in the ethical soup once again for using fake newspaper headlines attributed to real newspapers in his television ads.  He also got whacked during that cycle for allegedly and hypocritically hiring illegal aliens to clean some of his dairy stores, a charge that re-appeared in the election concluded on Saturday.  He lost the primary.

Subsequently, he ran ill-fated, intraparty campaigns for both state party chairman and county chairman in his home county.  He withdrew from both contests when it was clear he could not win.

In the 2008 race to succeed Hastert, Oberweis ran a bitter primary against 14-year incumbent State Senator Chris Lauzen.  He won the primary but engendered lingering vitriol from Lauzen and his supporters.  Lauzen refused to endorse Oberweis—admittedly this reflects poorly on Lauzen as well.  As such, some conservatives inclined to be less than enthusiastic about Oberweis to begin with became outright hostile.  This translated, at least in part, to the underwhelming GOP turnout on Saturday.

Additionally, Oberweis mucked it up again in the waning days of this latest campaign by taking a quote from Foster grossly out of context in a television ad he ran.  Oberweis was properly excoriated by the Chicago Tribune among others who have seen his act before.

So consider this candidate Oberweis in a state in which every constitutional officer is a Democrat, the two legislative leaders are Democrats, and the two U.S. Senators are Democrats. 

And consider this candidate Oberweis in a district, admittedly GOP leaning, that the third most powerful man in the world, Speaker Hastert, a 20-year incumbent, won only 60-40 two years ago against a no-name Democrat with 1/17th of the funds Hastert had at his disposal (and thus could not afford retail media buys).

In spite of the Obama ads and the dominant dogma of change, this congressional race between the blunder-prone Oberweis and the excruciatingly humorless (wait until he gets to Washington, you’ll see what I mean) Bill Foster was a decidedly local matter.

Senator Dick Durbin did his best to nationalize the race and cleverly divert voters’ attention away from this inconvenient reality saying of the Foster victory, "It tells me that voters are ready for a change.  They want new leadership in Washington.”

And, of course, who knows more about change than the number two man in the U.S. Senate, a 25-year congressional incumbent?  Since Durbin is up for re-election in November perhaps change should include his departure.

While Beltway insiders may spin Foster’s victory as one for the change insurgents, it is in fact most clearly a win for the Democrat establishment that has had increasing command control of Illinois over the past decade. 

Regardless of what ultimately happens in November, the Oberweis loss then is much less a harbinger of the future for the nation than it is an indicator of the present in Illinois.

Comments

[Pat Hickey Chicago, IL]

Nah,

Jimmy- the Two-Headed Boy with a budget consisting of S&H Green Stamps could have ecked out a win over Poor Jim Oberweiss.

For as smart a businessman as he seems, Jim Oberweiss ought to make a much less public contribution to the Common Weal.

[Breaking News!!!]

Even Pascoe and Davis' partner thinks that they ran a terrible campaign.

But Captain Jack still hasn't gotten the memo.

At the most, Lauzen's non-endorsement of Oberweis is matched by Laesch's non-endorsement of Foster. There's no objective proof that this was why Oberweis lost.

One thing many would rather not mention is the damage to the GOP brand by involvement with corruption. From the Wall Street Journal's Political Diary:

But Illinois Republicans, who have not won a major statewide race in a decade, should look in the mirror. Support for Republican candidates in the "collar" counties around Chicago has been declining for a generation. Not helping has been a rash of Republicans caught up in the corruption that seems to be endemic to Illinois politics. Certainly, Democrats bear the bulk of the blame for the state's "corruption tax" (estimated by some at $1 billion in padded contracts and ghost employees). But Republicans lost a great deal of credibility when George Ryan, the last GOP governor, went to prison for accepting bribes. Several GOP figures are also participants in the Rezko scandal, in which Barack Obama's top fundraiser is currently standing trial over a political shakedown scheme. No wonder, as one conservative activist put it, "the hapless and hopeless GOP cannot get traction."

[Easy]

This is too good. Proft blasts his own two partners for the failure of the campaign.

It's great to have an oracle like Dan for our party. He's been at the epicenter of some of our party's biggest disasters, but still finds time to critique, even if it's his own business parters who turned over a GOP seat for the first time in 105 years.

[Tom Deters]

I am disapointed with my fellow citizens of Illinois. I know Oberweis isnt a very gregarious guy and he is a very negative campaigner. He did not run a very good race and as a resident of the 14th district, I can say that the party did a very poor job of trying to turn out the vote.
But, look at what the democrats are doing to our state, you have some of the highest taxes in the country, you have government chasing business out of our state, we've got terrible services for the amount we spend. We have top to bottom corruption, our democrat legislators do more for the terrorists than they do for our troops in battle. But yet the democrats keep picking up seats and the repubs keep losing. Whats up with Illinois?

[Anon]

"Whats up with Illinois?"

Illinois Republicans, caught in a odd time warp that keeps their bodies in the present, but their minds anywhere from 10 to 30 years in the past, is simply attempting to sell a product that the current majority of Illinois voters are unwilling to buy.

Did Urq get fired?

[Scott Mesick]

We are not offering a clear difference, that is what's up with Illinois. Ours are as corrupt as theirs.

Oberweis on the other hand just turns people off and is a bad campaigner.

[spintreebob]

Among those in the 14th I talked with, Hastert is the epitome of the cover up of corruption that CHANGE refers to. For the 14th CHANGE does not mean liberal vs conservative, it means beltway vs populism.

Earmarks, pork, Prairie Parkway to no where, cover up of sex scandals ... they all are part of "corruption" in the voters minds. And remember, in a low turnout election, it is those focused on CITIZENSHIP who turnout. They are not necessarily typical of the November turnout. But they are the political opinion leaders in their neighborhoods.

Obie is on the ballot for November. I expect to support him. I sure hope he hires competent campaign managers.

[SoudanMan]

By appealing to both his business and science backgrounds, Foster was able to gain the support of the scientists and small business owners who form the bedrock of the district, especially since the cuts to Fermilab will have a devastating effect on employment and the economy, and people are scared. Draft Fortner, so we can put a physicist of our own into the House (and if not there, then as Governor).

[Centrino]

Wow, Proft bites the hand that feeds him.

Classic.

[Harry]

Centrino, if I remember correctly, when Pascoe and Davis were hired, they made a big deal about not doing it as part of Urq Media. I think that means that Oberweis is not "feed[ing]" Proft.

[elsie]

Excuse me, but didn't the Republican Party nominate Oberweiss in the primary? Seems to me that is a comment on the sorry state of the party.

[Anonamama]

Very over-critical coming from a guy who's never won a major campaign (remember the Keyes fiasco???). Never seems to matter who "runs" the campaigns, Obie always seems to screw it up ... maybe it's the candidate, and not the campaign staff? Hmmm ...

[Seriously Jones]

Seriously? Proft. You are more of a scum bag than I thought. Your firm was paid by Oberweis.

Now if this isn't reason for every candidate in the state of Illinois to not hire these losers, I don't know what is.

[Centrino]

Harry (or Proft's assistant?): Then why is Urquhardt Media (Proft, Pascoe, and Davis) all over Oberweis' campaign?

It may not be listed as Urquhardt on the reports, it may be listed as Starfish Consulting, Victory Media Group, or some other entity to prevent voters from knowing that they're involved.

And people, there's one 's' in Oberweis. If you're not sure, get in your car and I'm sure you'll see a sign with the correct spelling within a mile of your home.

Amen, Seriously Jones.

[Harry]

Okay, this is what I was thinking about.

http://illinoisreview.typepad.com/illinoisreview/2007/08/clarification-a.html

If you believe Proft about the business arrangement (and I know of no reason not to), then he did not receive any money from the Oberweis campaign, and those who are criticizing him for being a "scum bag" who "bites the hand that feeds him" are either misinformed or misleading.

[Centrino]

Harry (or Proft's assistant?): Then why is Urquhardt Media (Proft, Pascoe, and Davis) all over Oberweis' campaign?

It may not be listed as Urquhardt on the reports, it may be listed as Starfish Consulting, Victory Media Group, or some other entity to prevent voters from knowing that they're involved.

And people, there's one 's' in Oberweis. If you're not sure, get in your car and I'm sure you'll see a sign with the correct spelling within a mile of your home.

Amen, Seriously Jones.

[Harry]

I do not know Dan Proft. I have never met him or even seen him in person. He has defended himself under his own name in the past (including about the issue of whether he was working for Oberweis), and it seems kind of silly to me that he would have some "assistant" defend him.

I was a Lauzen supporter and think that Dan Proft's business partners screwed up the Oberweis campaign really bad, and I admire the fact that Proft is not afraid to say so.

[Harry]

Centrino, do you know of any actual evidence that Proft is involved in those other entities, or are you just making that up?

[Centrino]

Harry,

I do know that he rotates names depending on what race he's on, as I mentioned previously.

Don't you think that his business partners being initmately involved in the campaign is enough.

For someone that "doesn't know" Proft, you're quick to defend.

[Aurora GOP]

Centrino - I think it's fairly common knowledge among the party insiders that Proft had nothing to do with the Oberweis campaign. It's also fairly common for consultants to operate under different names depending on the race they assume. Some partners in the firm simply don't want to be associated with political firebrands, like an Alan Keyes or a Jim Oberweis.

[Harry]

I'll take that as a no.

[st.paddy]

What has another loss done for the Oberweis supporter? It has them blaming the staff that directed the show...well guess what, anyone that knows Oberweis knows no one directed the show other than him. You want to find fault? Look to the candidate himself. Four worthless attempts from a candidate who needs to leave the building for good. He needs to go back to pulling teats for a living.

[Land of Da Free]

It's quite obvious that Dan Proft did not do any work for the Oberweis campaign. That would have been in clear conflict with the new season of American Idol.