The costliest IL GOP debacle yet

Having the special election for the 14th CD on February 5, the same day for the primary election seems to be the easy answer to solve how to pick Denny Hastert's successor -- first, the one who will fulfill his unfinished term and second, the party's nominee who could go on to win in November and take over the 14th CD seat Inauguration Day 2009.

But is it as easy as all that?  On a conference call Friday, one former State Board of Elections counsel said the fact is no one really knows yet how to handle a special election at the same time a primary is being conducted.  They are two completely different elections, and demand two different sets of signature petitions.  But the state code doesn't make the procedure clear. 

Oberweis spokesman Bill Pascoe opined that both elections should be held on Feb 5, that the voters could "kill two birds with one stone."  Pascoe obviously hasn't thought this through all the way.

February 5 party primary voters will be given whichever ballot they request -- a Republican or a Democratic -- and their choices will be only within that particular party.  A general election is an open election, one that will allow voters to choose between a Democrat and a Republican, no matter which party primary election they choose to vote in.

Suppose a voter wanted to support Mayor Burns in the GOP primary and planned to vote for the Democrat in the General?  The special election ballots must be open ballots. 

If a special election takes place on February 5, there will be likely unprecedented interest in determining the presidential nominees at the top of the coinciding party primary tickets, which would definitely influence the outcome.  Anyone who's run for office knows 99% of winning is getting your identified supporters to the polls.  With the active Democratic and Republican presidential primaries voter turnout is expected to be unusually high.

But first things first.

First, we know, Hastert has to resign.  He's indicated he will soon, but hasn't specified the date.  When his resignation date is known, Governor Blagojevich has five days to determine the special election date to fill the vacant office, which may be up to 115 days after the resignation.

Petition signatures must be gathered.  A date for submitting those petitions will be set.  On that date, it will be determined how many special elections candidates there are.  If there are more than one from the major parties, a primary date must be determined.  If there are challenges to the petitions, a time for evaluation and challenge must be set aside.  A primary must be held for each party, and then the special election itself must be set.

The shorter the amount of time between the special election primary and the general, the greater the advantage to the candidate with more funds, who can get out their message via airwaves and expensive mass mailings.  The less-funded grassroots candidate will have only his ground troops to count on to get his message out.

The reason we have read so many different versions and heard so much speculation is that the legal experts are wrangling over the election procedure.  No  one really know what should be done, how and why. 

And that spells litigation, dispute, cries of "unfairness" and "injustice" which could stymie filling in Hastert's seat until the regularly-scheduled General Election in November -- the one proceeded by a regularly-scheduled party primary on February 5.

This whole scenario gives political observers the deja vu sense of the confusion after Jack Ryan resigned as the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in 2004.  Who doesn't recall the circus of candidates who paraded before the IL GOP State Central Committee -- including a homeless guy wearing a white Washington wig, an unknown downstate farmer, an obscure World War II veteran and a few more serious prospects who demanded funding from the party?  And who can't recall the final choice from that  gut-wrenching ordeal?  The carpetbagger from Maryland who gave us Barack Obama -- not only in Illinois, but now a national candidate for president.

This special election to replace a resigning former speaker could be the costliest IL Republican debacle yet.

Comments

[Pete Speer]

Fran, you raise good points. If it is true that more thasn two candidates in a party at a Special Election will require a primary befor the Special Election matters become bizarre, especially with the date time sequence.

The genial ex-wrestling coach is doing this with malice aforethought. Or should we say "with Dallas aforethought."

The Oswego political boss will do anything short of sacrifing his wife and giving up profitable lobbying in Springfield to defeat Chris Lauzen. St. Dennis works as he always has at his bidding.

Partners in profitable projects as well as in politics, this pair is deploying their political resources to Jim Oberweis, the man who can best afford the cost of quadrupal elections. Ingemundson's supposed retirement from politics is designed to let him step aside in the event of a Lauzen victory, so that he would not have to support him in the general election.

Dirty work indeed. It is interesting to consider the smart Republican operatives from outside the District who have moved away from Jim whom they supported last time around and are moving towards Chris.

Hastert has muddied the waters, failing to support the national party in this time of crisis. Too bad for Republicans nationwide. Too bad for the integrity of the State party.

Which leads to an interesting question, where does the great Buddha, Andy McKenna stand in all this mess?

[Bill Pascoe]

Fran,

As a paid consultant to Jim Oberweis's campaign, I don't normally post comments on blog posts I read here. But since you've chosen to direct a comment to me personally, I'll claim a point of personal privilege here and respond.

In fact, I HAVE thought through the implications of the Speaker’s decision to resign his seat early. About which, a few comments:

First, let’s commend the Speaker for his service to his constituents in the 14th District –- and while we’re at it, let’s commend him as well for his service to our state and our nation. That he chose to stay in office for a year beyond the election in which he lost his Speakership is a thing to be praised, not evidence of calumny; in representing his constituents well into the new Congress, he has served his constituents longer than any former Speaker since Joe Martin of Massachusetts more than half a century ago.

Second, now that Speaker Hastert has decided to resign his seat -– apparently well in advance of the early May 2008 date beyond which the constituents of the 14th District would go unrepresented for the duration of the 110th Congress -– the questions surrounding a special election to fill the seat are not at all uncommon. Special elections have been held on a regular basis to fill unexpired portions of House terms, even here in Illinois (surely you have not forgotten that one of Illinois longest- and ablest-serving conservatives, Phil Crane, was himself first elected to the House in a special election mandated by then-Congressman Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation in 1969?).

Confusion comes into play when readers are given inaccurate information, which is found in this paragraph of your piece:

“February 5 party primary voters will be given whichever ballot they request -- a Republican or a Democratic -- and their choices will be only within that particular party. A general election is an open election, one that will allow voters to choose between a Democrat and a Republican, no matter which party primary election they choose to vote in. Suppose a voter wanted to support Mayor Burns in the GOP primary and planned to vote for the Democrat in the General? The special election ballots must be open ballots.”

Your piece implies that a general election will be held on February 5 (presumably, the special election to fill the unexpired portion of the Speaker’s term), even as the regularly scheduled primary for the full term takes place simultaneously.

This, I submit, is where the analysis is flawed -– because it is virtually impossible that a special general election could take place on February 5.

Both Illinois law and Illinois political tradition are clear on this point: the special election to fill the unexpired portion of the Speaker’s term will require both a primary election and a general election. It is up to the Governor to set the dates of the special primary election and the special general election, but he is constrained by state law in this area -– that date of the special general election must be no more than 120 days after the creation of the vacancy, but NO election (including a primary election) can take place fewer than 50 days after the creation of the vacancy.

As you correctly point out, a vacancy is created when the Speaker’s resignation takes effect. On that date, a clock will start ticking. The Governor will then have five days to choose a date for a special election to fill the seat, and that date must fall no later than 115 days after his five-day window expires. So, on the outside, a special election will be held no later than 120 days from the creation of the vacancy.

But Illinois law also sets periods for collecting signatures, for filing candidacies, and for challenging candidacies. It’s my understanding that when you add up these discrete periods, you end up with a time frame of 50-57 days as a minimum requirement before ANY election -– including a primary election -– could be held.

50-57 days before the February 5 date is December 10-17.

Thus, as long as the Speaker’s resignation becomes official before December 17th at the outside, the Governor could set February 5 as the date for the primary election of the special election -– but he couldn’t set it as the date for the GENERAL election of the special election, because that wouldn’t allow enough time for candidates to collect signatures, file their candidacies, and still leave time for challenges in the special primary election that must be held.

Shall we let your readers decide who’s thought this through, and who hasn’t?

[Fran]

Thank you Bill, for taking time to clarify the situation from your perspective. This is sure to be a topic of controversy as the time schedule plays out.
I will retract my "thought through" comment, although I was assessing a public statement that was made in a context that was unclear.
As always, Illinois Review readers decide for themselves. We opine, and they agree or disagree. This wasn't a news story, it was a piece to stir discussion. I apologize if my comments in any way were disrespectful.
Let the discussion continue. . .

[tfb]

Pete:

For those of us outside the party elite camps can you clarify a few things as follows:

Pete wrote:

The genial ex-wrestling coach is doing this with malice aforethought. Or should we say "with Dallas aforethought."

My question:

And the reference to "Dallas" means????

Pete wrote:

The Oswego political boss

My question:

And the boss's name is...???

Pete wrote:

will do anything short of sacrifing his wife and giving up profitable lobbying in Springfield to defeat Chris Lauzen.

My question:

Why is Lauzen his nemesis and why would he consider Oberweis preferable?

Pete writes:

Partners in profitable projects as well as in politics, this pair is deploying their political resources to Jim Oberweis,

My question:

And the name of the pair is....?

Thanks for any light you can shed on the above.

tfb, who apparently needs a decoder ring

[spin Bob Schmidt]

" we know, Hastert has to resign " . . . Why ?

Hastert has a history of waffling, procrastinating, and then making a wrong decision too little too late that hurts the party.

Is there any indication he is about to change his ways?

[Marc V. Avelar]

I think every mainstream constituent of the 14th congressional district, past or present, share Bill Pascoe's commending former Speaker Dennis Hastert's service to our country, as a United States Congressman for 21 years, and as Speaker from 1999-2007. While many in the 14th district will disagree with Hastert's decision to not serve-out his final elected term, he has said his farewell to his colleagues and has said "Goodbye".

Personally, I am thankful that the process for choosing a successor to fulfill Hastert's unexpired term in the 110th Congress is given to the people of the 14th Congressional District, and not by a decision by Republican Party Chairmen within the 14th CD. Unlike vacancies in most elected bodies where vacancies at all levels of government are decided by either a presiding officer or party chairmen, thus giving the appointed official the benefits of incumbency come the next election, one must earn the honor to represent us in the U.S. House of Representatives through nomination and election from the people of the congressional district.

I sincerely hope the decision makers (Congressman Hastert, Governor Blagojevich) for determining when both the Special Primary and Special General elections will occur have thoroughly researched when the 14th CD's resignation must be submitted in order to execute a concurrent Special Primary election with the February 5th General Primary Election. Voters are smart enough to know the difference between an unexpired term for Congress in the 110th Congress versus a full term in the 111th Congress to cast votes for their favorite candidate 2 times on the same ballot.

Sincerely,
-- Marc

P.S. I am a 13-year resident of 14th Congressional District and an unpaid volunteer for State Senator Chris Lauzen's Congressional Campaign. The opinions are my own.

[politwriter]

I could be wrong here, but I believe that Hastert may be doing the citizens of the 14th District a colossal favor by stepping down early.

As I remember from my days on the Hill, a Congressman elected in a special election would have several months of seniority over those who would be elected in the same year in November.

Consequently they would be a step ahead in terms of seniority on their Committees.

15 years from now, this could result in the 14th Dist. Congressman being a relatively more powerful Committee Chairman or subcommittee Chairman, in that he would supercede his peers elected a few months later in the same year.

Was this Hastert's motivation?

I do not live in that District, but have met both Sen. Lauzen and Jim Oberweis and believe the people there would be well served with either man.

Lauzen was the lone Illinois State Senator to vote against in-state tuition rates for illegal aliens and Oberweis took a stand on the salient issue of illegal immigration well before it became as increasingly popular as it is today.

[Pete Speer]

tfb --

The pair are Dallas Ingemunson and Dennis Hastert.

A Lauzen sponsored candidat, Eric Weis, defeated Boyd Ingemunson, son of Dallas in the Republican primary for State's Attorney.

Apologies for misspelling Dallas Ingemunson's name

Dallas is and has been the de facto Republican party boss in Kendall County.

As I understand it, in response to Boyd's defeat Dallas attempted to inveigle Jim Oberweis to run against the Chris Lauzen in the Republican State Senatorial primary (the Senatorial District includes parts of Kendall and Kane County), with the implied promise that if he won, he would be backed by the Oswego combine in the election for Hastert's seat.

Pete:

Thank you for answering the questions, it is appreciated.

And, you wrote:

inveigle

My reply:

I happily had to grab the dictionary on that one. I am happy, I learned a new word today.

tfb

[Mark Rhoads]

I agree with the Bill Pascoe analysis as to the timing of a special general election. I was a consultant to the Illinois Election Laws Study Commission in 1972 and years later served as the Republican spokesperson on the State Senate Elections Committee when we passed a consolidated election code. The purpose was always to consolidate a special election (primary or general) with a regularly scheduled election whenever possible to save money on polling places and judges. I believe it is correct that the last truly special primary and general election day in Illinois that took place in only one district was in October and November of 1969 when Phil Crane was elected to replace Don Rumsfeld who had resigned his seat from the then northwest Cook County 13th District. Three years later the first consolidated elections law was passed. You can consolidate either the primary or general with Feb. 5 but one still needs a second election day. Maybe the election could be consolidated with a school or local election but I see nothing on the calendar that would work nor do I see any provision that would allow bypassing a primary if someone were to advance such a horrible idea.

[Pete Speer]

Mark --

And if, by agreement only one candidate files for a Special Election, need there be a Primary for that Special Election?

And in the unlikely event that no one files, is there an appointment? By whom?

And the $64,000 question -- why is Hastert retiring early?