Novak predicts Dem pickup in 11th CD

Robert Novak predicts a possible Democratic win next year in Jerry Weller's 11th CD and a surprising Democratic takeover threat in Ray LaHood 18th CD...

See below the fold.

From today's Robert Novak Newsletter:

House

Illinois-11: Rep. Jerry Weller (R), another Republican under a cloud of scandal and suspicion of corruption, will retire from Congress at the end of this term. Weller is married to a Guatemalan lawmaker and says the long-distance relationship was becoming a strain.

This district stretches West from Chicago's South Side, including Joliet and Ottawa, and reaches South to Bloomington. It was a near tie in the 2000 elections, but Bush carried it by seven points in 2004. It is wedged between the districts of retiring Representatives Dennis Hastert (R) and Ray LaHood (R), and politically it lies between them -- slightly more Democratic than Hastert's 14th District and slightly more Republican than LaHood's 18th.

While the district leans slightly Republican, the shadow of Weller's corruption could give Democrats an edge. Early Democratic candidates include Kankakee Community College President Jerry Weber (D). The Republican field is still nascent. Depending on the nominees, this could go either way, but unless Weller's shadow departs quickly, this one looks like the Democrats' strongest chance in Illinois. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Illinois-18: The entrance of former basketball coach Dick Versace (D) brings to a near tossup the race for the Peoria-based seat left open by the retirement Rep. Ray LaHood (R).

Versace was the head basketball coach in the 1980s at Bradley University in Peoria, the golden era of the program. He later coached the NBA's Indiana Pacers, worked as an on-air commentator and served as the head coach of the NBA's Memphis Grizzlies. The other Democrat in the rate is retired Navy Captain Chuck Giger (D).

The Republican field features 26-year-old State Rep. Aaron Schock (R), Peoria businessman Jim McConoughey (R) and former Peoria City Councilman John Morris (R). Rep. LaHood's son, Darin LaHood (R), took a pass and is instead challenging the incumbent state's attorney.

Versace's wide name recognition combines with a likely strong Democratic year in Illinois to wipe out the generic advantage a Republican has in this district, which Bush won by 5.5 points in 2004 and which has been in Republican hands for 70 years (including former Minority Leader Bob Michel). Versace has media experience, but as a political rookie, possibly facing more seasoned (although much younger) opponents, he faces many likely pitfalls. This one could swing the other way if Versace proves to be a strong candidate, but right now it is still tilting towards the Republicans. Leaning Republican Retention.

Comments

[Super Mega]

Really? Maybe if Weller were running for re-election, but now it's a moot point. The district was drawn for a Republican and President Bush won the district by 7 points.

The problem with people like Novak (who probably hasn't been back to the area in 40 years) speculate on what they hear in DC, and have no idea what's happening on the ground.

This district will be a GOP hold, just like LaHood's district.

[Mr Strategist]

He isn't predicting a Dem pick up. He says it's leaning as a Dem Pick up. This means that the Dems have a 51-55% chance to get the seat and while that might be up 7 points from last year, if Novak was in the room would he flat out say....I predict this seat is a pick up for the Dems. Remember the district was gerrymandered to be a 58-42 Republican advantage.

[spintreebob]

Depending on past gerrymandering is the type of bonehead thinking of the GOP establishment that has brought the IL GOP to its present state of being a 3rd party.

[Super Mega]

Is that right, spintree? A third party? To whom? What other party holds office other in this state other than the Democratic and Republican Party? If this is some sort of plug for the Green Party, you should move to Europe, where they're actually relevant.

The only reason that it's not a 58-42 GOP advantage is because of the huge growth of Will County that's diluted the GOP vote.

While the GOP has lost state-level seats, reflective of the current trend, the presidential vote indicates where the district still stands. GOP +7.

[pete speer]

Don't fret for too long. After the next census Illinois is bound to drop a seat and unless the Great Buddha who is the Hassock of the State Party can get his head out from among his hemerrhoids and mastermind a fighting majority in the General Assembly it will be a Republican one as Gov. Madigan and her guy Jerry M. Anders finesse the lineup.